REAL ESTATE IN KEARNY/NEWARK....FROM A REALTORS VIEW

There are times when the financial system of this country is vigorous and everyone feels confident about his or her prospects for the future. As a result, they spend money. People eat out more, buy new cars, and, most importantly from a realtor’s point of view, they buy houses.

Then, for one reason or another, the economy slows down. Everyone tries to save a little money. Companies lay off employees and consumers are more careful about where they spend money. As a result, the economy deflates even further. If it slows enough, we have a recession.

During such a time, fewer people are buying homes. But, that never means there are not homes for sale. Some homeowners find themselves in a situation where they must sell. For example, families grow beyond the capacity of the home, employees get relocated, and some may even find themselves unable to make their mortgage payment due to layoffs or illness.

In real estate, the relationship between supply and demand is calculated as "available inventory." At the current sales pace, how long would it take to sell the total number of houses available on the market? That is how the real estate industry measures inventory.

Inventory is measured in weeks and months. Longer inventory times are associated with buyers' markets. Shorter inventory periods are associated with sellers' markets. Some buyers and sellers hope to time their purchase to take advantage of market cycles.

Here at the Rosa Agency, we are on top of all the real estate trends and whether you are buying or selling your home, we can offer you a friendly, helping hand.

Well, sorry for the slowdown in writing.  The real estate market really is unbelievable... (you can interprete that two ways).

The current slowdown, while a common long term economic cycle, is new to many.  Jobs are not as secure, large profits in the real estate market are not taking place, sales have slowed, mortgage bankers and banks out of business, realtors looking for second jobs (yes, real estate sales really is a job), construction people out of work, suppliers are full of supplies and not having stuff (tools, lumber, kitchens, plumbing ) fly off the shelf. .. blah blah... you know, you are living it like I am. 

What I predicted earlier is happening.  The public, in it's fear, has tightened it's belt and is not spending money.  That in turn slows down the economy and slows the rest of the market down. 

WE, as a public, listen to Wall Street who caused the sub-prime fiasco mess (by not having enough reserves on hand when this cycle would happen); are now stuck NOT buying real estate, or anything else (that keeps the economy humming) and forcing this cycle upon ourselves... again, at the direction of Wall Street (the same ones who caused this mess)

Well... Good news.

Positive news for Realtors in '08 NAR economist underlines real estate's silver lining Friday, December 21, 2007 By Bernice Ross Inman News

In all the years I've been writing this column, I have never received such an outpouring of response as I did from the two November articles on how media coverage of negative housing news is hurting our industry. In spite of gloom and doom of recent news reports on the state of the nation's housing, there is plenty of good news, the most recent of which comes from the National Association of Realtors. Laurence Yun, the chief economist for NAR, had plenty of positive news for Realtors at last month's conference. Yun attributed much of today's subprime mortgage problem to greed. Wall Street wanted the 10-12 percent return that subprime mortgages yielded as opposed to the smaller returns from more traditional mortgage products. His take on the Wall Street types: "They gambled. They lost." Yun's outlook for 2008 sees a shift from greedy speculators to serious homeowners. 2008 will be a year of opportunity where there will be serious, healthy business. Furthermore, Yun predicted that the market returns to normal by 2009. According to Yun, one of the biggest mistakes that reporters make is talking about national trends. Nationally, 2007 was the fifth best year ever on record. Home prices declined about 1.5 percent after a 50 percent run up in prices. The challenge is that national numbers are pretty much irrelevant. Yun argues that talking about national averages is about as effective as having a national weather forecast. Like the weather, all real estate markets are local. In fact, you may have a buyer's market and a seller's market operating within a single market area based exclusively upon price point. Here are the other key pieces of positive news from Yun's economic report: 1. New housing starts: Even though these are dropping, there was too much building in recent years. The market is simply adjusting to normal supply-and-demand pressures. The inventory is "being controlled which makes stabilization occur more quickly." 2. Foreclosures: According to Yun, the 41 percent increase in foreclosures has resulted primarily from investor-heavy real estate purchases in Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada. The majority of these individuals are flippers whose investments did not payoff. More importantly, the number of foreclosures in Utah, New Mexico, North Carolina and South Carolina is actually declining. 3. Under-priced markets and superstar cities: Although the coastal markets are still overpriced, Middle America is under priced. Nevertheless, Yun cites a new trend termed, "superstar" cities. These cities will command premium prices, regardless of what the market does. There is so much wealth concentrated in these areas, that measurements are simply not predictive. In addition to London, Paris, Tokyo and New York, Yun also identified San Francisco, Miami and Seattle as potential new superstar cities. 4. The recovery has started: Other than the three states hit heavily by job losses in the automotive industry (Indiana, Michigan and Ohio), the states that first experienced a downturn in the Northeast, are now in recovery. Specifically, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New York and Rhode Island were the first to feel the slump and are now well into a recovery. Furthermore, there appears to be a pent-up demand for first-time buyer properties due to a large number of Gen Ys (born 1977 to 1994) that are now buying their first homes. Falling interest rates will motivate many of these buyers to step into the market now. 5. New jobs and corporate profits are still strong: Corporate profits are still strong with companies as diverse as Microsoft and Jack Daniels reporting close to record profits. Furthermore, the economy has generated 4 million net new jobs and wages are rising. 6. A weak dollar may harbinger more foreign investment in U.S. real estate Although the decline of the U.S. dollar will end up costing us more when we go overseas or purchase imports, it has resulted in more manufacturing jobs returning to the U.S. It also may mean more foreign investment in U.S. properties as well. Just a few years ago, the Canadian dollar was only worth 70 cents in U.S. currency. Today, the Canadian dollar has been hovering at about $1.05 to $1.10 U.S. What this means is that we can expect more Canadians and Europeans to be purchasing U.S. property, because our prices are approximately 50 percent cheaper than they were just three years ago. 7. Real estate: Still the best shelter: For those agents who represent reluctant first-time buyers, Yun points to some interesting research from the Federal Reserve. Between 1995 and 2004, the average renter accumulated $4,000 in wealth. In contrast, the average homeowner accumulated $184,400. Furthermore, the typical homeowner holds their property for six years. Within this period of time, NAR's research shows that approximately 97 percent of the homeowners will have a positive equity position after that period of time. Bottom line: 2008 represents the best window that buyers will have to find excellent deals with excellent financing. Get the word out there. If they wait, prices and interest rates will be higher and the reluctant buyer may be forced out of the market. Bernice Ross, national speaker and CEO of Realestatecoach.com, is the author of "Waging War on Real Estate's Discounters" and "Who's the Best Person to Sell My House?" Both are available online. She can be reached at bernice@realestatecoach.com or visit her blog at www.LuxuryClues.com. ***

As a blogger, I read a lot of stories from a lot of different sources.  This one made me smile when I read it.  It's not an earth shattering story or a life changing story, just one that is fun to read.

This one was originally published in the Courier Post on December 3.

As Christmas approaches, we all start getting that warm and fuzzy feeling of home and family and friends.  For my part, I love Christmas and everything that has to do with Christmas.  Where the trees come from is just one tiny part of the whole Christmas feeling.

If you're looking for the best Christmas tree in New Jersey, don't bother.

Sue and John Wyckoff have already grown it and shown it.

The Warren County farmers were this year's winners at a statewide contest run by a Christmas-tree growers' group.

Now I know what you're thinking. Surely, an industry event like this must feature all the latest breakthroughs -- like the long-rumored self-tinseling spruce.

But no. Apparently, a tree's a tree -- and you pretty much take what nature gives you.

"A lot of it is luck," says Sue Wyckoff, whose family farm defeated about two dozen challengers from the 200-member New Jersey Christmas Tree Growers' Association.

"You start pruning the tree every year after two or three years, but there's not much else you can do," adds Mike Garrett, a Sussex County farmer who took first place in the contest's pine division.

The judges, just like customers, look for the basics -- color, density, shape.

"You don't want a tree that looks too perfect," says Garrett, using the same logic that led my wife to choose me. "Too good can look artificial."

In fact, it seems to me the appearance of Christmas trees -- so important when you choose them -- tends to blur in memory over time. What stands out are the memories.

Like a few years ago, when my wife and I heard a thunderous crash in the living room. We rushed in to find our tree toppled sideways, with 4-year-old Luke entangled in its boughs and balls.

His first words: "I wasn't climbing it!"

Luke won't be climbing any of this year's winners, either.

The contest was conducted at the Hunterdon County 4-H Fair -- way back in August.

Afterward, each competitor won a free trip through a chipper, turning even the grand champion into pedigreed mulch.

Then again, the growers say real trees are attractive because they help the ecology while artificial ones help the economy -- usually in China. Not surprisingly, they also prefer our trees to those from other states.

"The one that's trucked in was probably cut three weeks ago," asserts Anne Edwards of North Hanover, the group's president. The industry's also working to upgrade its product. John Wyckoff says you can look forward to a Fraser fir with stronger branches to better support fragile ornaments. That's better than the moody tree I buy year after year, which deliberately hurls my decorations to the floor.

Meanwhile, growers face a common problem -- choosing the tree that gets sacrificed each summer. "It's very difficult," Garrett says as a rooster cackles in the background. "I'll have one that I like on this side of the farm and one that's just as good on the other side. I understand what my customers are going through."

From a story publlished HERE.

The Christmas season is upon us and no holiday makes us think of home more than this one.

What better to place to call home than Kearny New Jersey? 

According to the Kearny New Jersey Official Town Website: 

The Town of Kearny is a diverse community of 40,000 located on 9.3 square miles in the western portion of Hudson County. Bordered by two rivers—Hackensack and Passaic—the town is divided into two zones: the “uplands” or residential area comprised of single and multi-family homes, stately Victorians, apartments and small retail shops, and South Kearny, the commercial zone comprised of manufacturing, transportation companies, and other industries.

Kearny enjoys numerous attributes—a diverse population, solid public school system, safe streets, a good mix of housing stock, access to public transportation, strong and in some cases legendary recreational programs, and a true town center—which make it an attractive place to live.

Well, it's happening.  I'm getting more phone calls AND OFFERS from investors looking for the "Good Deal". Soon, the end users will get tired of paying rent and start buying THEIR slice of the American Dream.

GOOD!  At least SOME are realizing that good credit and buying smart will make you money in the long run.  What I have a hard time doing now is educating Sellers that:

1.  Last years pricing was last years....

2.  Waiting for next year, or the year after may not get you last years pricing, but only cost you two years of taxes and maintenance.

3.  The buyers are controlling the market now, and you have to price your home according to what your neighbor is pricing his at, not what your other neighbor's cousin who lives in a worse part of town, and has a smaller house with no basement and sold only 15 months ago for.... xxxx amount of dollars.

In other words, we are back to reality; supply and demand rules of economics combined with an areas affordable index.  Buyers will buy what they feel the house is worth, while negotiating with a seller who THINKS he knows what the house is worth.  Our job as Realtors, is to bring them both together and let them both believe they got the best of the deal.

The last few years have been extremely kind to sellers, with values almost outpacing their dream values of what the house is worth.  Realtors were scorned and looked upon as uneducated sales people who didn't keep up with the market.  In reality, we did, it was the market that outpaced our knowledge and in many cases, sellers dream pricing.  ("Would have, could have, should have sold for more") 

Now, it's more of the Buyer market, with buyers offering what they feel the house may be worth in the next year, rather than what you are asking for it. 

Stay the course, HIRE a good Realtor (r), and ask what your neighbor is selling their house for, and what homes are under contract rather than what they sold for the last 12 months.

Call me today for a free computerized market analysis of your home, Manuel Couto 201-997-7860 x16 or email me at Homes@MCoutoRealtor.com

SAN FRANCISCO - San Francisco ranks fifth in the nation as a location for real estate development and investment, according to a national study released Thursday in San Francisco.

The City lost out to top-rated New York City, which was deemed the most desirable metropolitan area to invest in development and real estate in the nation, according to the 2008 Emerging Trends study, an annual survey of real estate industry professionals put out by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the nonprofit Urban Land Institute. Seattle was the only West Coast city to rank higher than San Francisco on the annual list.

Factors in San Francisco’s attractiveness to developers include its access to airports and ports, its emphasis on transit oriented development and its status as a “24-hour, global-pathway city,” experts said at the Emerging Trends in Real Estate Conference on Thursday.

“San Francisco is a multifaceted city with many diverse attractions,” said PricewaterhouseCoopers’ Jonathan Miller, keynote speaker at the conference, hosted by the Hotel Nikko. “It’s still the dominant 24-hour city of the West Coast, and it attracts a global market that few cities in America can attain.”

San Francisco received top-five national rankings for its potential in residential, office, hotels and retail development in the survey, including a first place ranking for hotel development.

Thomas Callahan, chief executive officer of PKF Consulting, said that profits of hotels are just now returning to the 2001 levels that were common before the dot-com crash.

The City also received a second place ranking for residential development potential, fourth place for office development and third place for retail investment-all hopeful signs that the area could withstand slow growth, or even a recession, in the upcoming year, Miller and others said.

Although the nation’s current subprime lending crisis has caused fears of a potential economic recession, San Francisco’s status may help insulate it from major repercussions in development.

“We look at the forecast for 2008 with a dose of fear,” Miller said. “We’re all walking on eggshells a little bit. There is a fear of a downslide, but if that happens San Francisco will certainly be better equipped to handle it than many other cities in the country.”

According to Jack Myers of San Francisco-based real estate firm Myers Development, vacancy rates of office buildings in The City have dropped slightly, from 9 percent 12 months ago to the current mark of 8.6 percent. The price of rental space has subsequently increased, rising from an average of $37.86 per square foot a year ago to $44.50 now.

Both numbers reflect positive signs for investors, Myers said, but economic factors could inhibit growth in the future.

“San Francisco is one of the hippest cities in the world, and it’s a wonderful incentive for both employers and employees,” Myers said. “But an economic recession would slow down job growth and effectively limit office development.”

San Francisco office space

Half of The City’s existing 80 million square feet of office space is designated Class A, the most desirable classification.

» 1.4 million square feet now under construction

» 1.3 million square feet set to begin construction in Q1 2008

» 700,000 square feet in the pipeline (city planning process)

Source: Myers Development Company and CB Real Estate

Investment opportunities

Top 10 cities for real-estate investment

1. New York City

2. Seattle

3. Washington, D.C.

4. Boston

5. San Francisco

6. Los Angeles

7. San Diego

8. Chicago

9. San Jose

10. Denver

Source: Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2008, Urban Land Institute and PriceWaterhouseCoopers